Donald Brown is going to be an awesome running back sleeper pick this year in fantasy football drafts around the country. He is flying under the radar with an average draft position (ADP) of 76. That means that he is currently being drafted in rounds 7-8 in most drafts but his value will far exceed that draft position.
Let’s look at a few of the reasons why Brown will be a great sleeper pick in 2012:
1. He will get many more touches. Last year, Donald got 134 carries out of the 382 total times the Indianapolis Colts ran the ball. Joseph Addai was the primary back in 2011, and now he is gone – leaving Brown as the main man in Indy. At the very least you can expect his carries to double this year (giving him at least 268) and possibly 300 if the Colts have more leads late in ball games. Brown had 643 yards last year, and if his YPC stays roughly the same – he’ll finish 2012 with over 1200 rushing yards.
2. He was incredibly productive last year. Although his opportunities in 2011 were limited, he still boasted a 4.8 yards per carry average, which was 12th best for all running backs with over 100 carries last year. He also posted 5 touchdowns last season, and you can expect that number to go up significantly this year as well as he gets more opportunities.
3. The Colts will be much better on offense. With the hype surrounding ufabet เว็บตรงเข้าสู่ระบบ Andrew Luck this year, it’s hard to see the Colts being any worse offensively than 2011 when Curtis Painter ran the show for most of the year. The improvement at the quarterback position alone should help the Colts win a few more ball games, and provide more threats for defenses to focus on stopping which should open the running lanes up more.
4. New Coach and new offensive scheme. Chuck Pagano was brought in to be the Colts new coach and usher in the Andrew Luck era. Gone is the no-huddle Peyton Manning used to run with so many audibles at the line of scrimmage and so many passing plays. It is a much more balanced offense now, and there will be a lot more running with Pagano’s system.
5. He has no competition. Vick Ballard was drafted in round 5, and Delone Carter has looked terrible so far this preseason – and those guys are the main competition for Donald. He should easily dominate most of the touches for the Colts this year, and big statistics should follow.
Bottom Line I expect Donald to compile 1300 total yards and 8-9 touchdowns.
That is great production for a running back currently coming off the board in round 7-8 in most drafts. Target Donald early in the 7th as a sleeper pick and you’ll be way ahead of your competition this year!…